This course introduces fundamental concepts and modeling tools for decision making under uncertainty. The pedagogical approach combines business cases, conceptual frameworks of probability and risk analysis, and spreadsheet modeling of managerial decision problems. The course will also provide you with training in state-of-the-art Palisade's DecisionTools Suite to perform and interpret Monte Carlo simulation and decision tree models. Among the concepts discussed in depth are the value of information, option value, selection bias, herd behavior, risk aversion, and the "flaw of averages.'' The concepts and tools are illustrated using business applications in the areas of economics, strategy, operations, and finance.

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